How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

Reasons for such adjustments include:

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

Why the Line Changes

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

How the Opening Line Is Made .

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations.

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.

Contributed by:

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

RJ Bell

┬ęPregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ┬Ż to try and attract money on the favorite. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf).

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created.

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks

Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport.

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

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Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

By: Manny G

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. . However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly

Tribute to Henny Youngman – King of the One-Liners

Hotel Jokes . I asked, “What do you want?” He said, “A match” “Why didn’t you ask me?” “I don’t talk to strangers.”

Homeless Guys Jokes

Drunk Jokes

The hotel I’m in has a lovely closet. I don’t mind when my horse comes up to me in the stands and asks, “Which way do I go?” But when the horse I bet on is at the $2 window betting on another horse in the same race .

My horse was so late getting home, he tiptoed into the stable. I swung again, missed the ball, and got another big chunk of dirt.

My room is so small, the mice are hunchbacked. The horse turns around and says “Why are you hitting me, there is nobody behind us!”

Farrah’s dressing room was next to mine.

A bum asked me, “Give me $10 till payday.” I asked, “When’s payday?” He said, “I don’t know, you’re the one who is working!”

This is an elegant hotel! Room service has an unlisted number. I let her look. 10% sex, 90% guilt.

The room is so small, when I put the key in, I broke the window!

Hollywood Jokes

The horse I bet on was so slow, the jockey kept a diary of the trip. .

There was a girl knocking on my hotel room door all night! Finally, I let her out.

I don’t mind when my horse is left at the post. Just then, two ants climbed on the ball saying, “Let’s get up here fast before we get killed!”

I’m now making a Jewish porno film.

A drunk was in front of a judge. I lost 100 pounds!”

I played a great horse yesterday! It took seven horses to beat him.

I was playing golf. The drunk says, “Huh. I swung, missed the ball, and got a big chunk of dirt. Hollywood called me, asking me, “How much to do a movie with Farrah Fawcett?” I said, “$50,000.” They called back, “How about $20,000?” I said, “I’ll pay it!”

Another bum told me, “I haven’t tasted food all week.” I told him, “Don’t worry, it still tastes the same!”

I was walking down the street, and I found a man’s hand in my pocket. The judge says, “You’ve been brought here for drinking.” The drunk says, “Okay, let’s get started.”

I have a lovely room and bath in the hotel. . There was a little hole in the wall. It’s a little inconvenient; they’re in two separate buildings!

Another drunk goes up to a parking meter, puts in a quarter, the dial goes to 60.

A bum came up to me saying, “I haven’t eaten in two days!” I said, “You should force yourself!”

My horse’s jockey was hitting the horse. A nail